Cont Monetary Policy

Domestic Economy

Growth

GDP growth decelerated to 7.7 per cent in Q1 of 2011-12 from 7.8 per cent in the previous quarter and 8.8 per cent in the corresponding quarter a year ago. Agricultural growth has accelerated, but industry and services have decelerated. The index of industrial production (IIP) slowed from 8.8 per cent year-on-year in June  to 3.3 per cent in July. However, excluding capital goods, the growth of IIP was higher at 6.7 per cent in July  as  compared with 4.4 per cent in June. Cumulatively, the IIP increased by 5.8 per cent during April-July 2011, compared with an increase of 9.7 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year.

The HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index for the manufacturing sector also suggested moderation. Corporate margins in Q1 of 2011-12 moderated across several sectors compared to their levels in Q4 of 2010-11. However, barring a few sectors, significant pass-through of rising input costs is still visible.

Monsoon rains so far have been normal. The first advance estimates for the 2011-12 kharif season point to a record production of rice, oilseeds and cotton, while the output of pulses may decline.

Inflation

Headline year-on-year wholesale price index (WPI) inflation rose from 9.2 per cent in July to 9.8 per cent in August 2011.  Inflation in respect of primary articles and fuel groups edged up in August. Year-on-year non-food manufactured products inflation rose from  7.5 per cent in July  to 7.7 per cent in August 2011 suggesting as yet persistent demand pressures. The oil marketing companies raised the price of petrol by ` 3.14 per litre with effect from September 16, 2011. This will have a direct impact of  7 basis points to WPI inflation, in addition to indirect impact with a lag. The new combined (rural and urban) consumer price index (base: 2010=100) rose to 110.4 in July from 108.8 in June. Other consumer price indices registered inflation rates in the range of 8.4 to 9.0 per cent in July.

Monetary, Credit and Liquidity Conditions

Year-on-year money supply (M₃) growth at 16.7 per cent in August was higher than the projection of 15.5 per cent for the year reflecting higher growth in term deposits and moderation in currency growth.  Similarly, year-on-year non-food credit growth at 20.1 per cent in August 2011 was above the indicative projection of 18 per cent set out in the July Review.

Liquidity has remained in deficit, consistent with the stance of monetary policy. The daily average borrowings under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) were around ` 40,000 crore in September (up to September 15, 2011). Money and the government securities markets have remained orderly. In recent weeks, as a result of global risk aversion, the rupee has depreciated, which may have adverse implications for inflation.

Monetary transmission strengthened further with 45 scheduled commercial banks raising their Base Rates by 25-100 basis points after the July Review. Consequently, the modal base rate of banks rose to 10.75 per cent in August from 10.25 per cent in July.