Monetary Policy Sep 2011

Monetary Measures

On the basis of the current macroeconomic assessment, it has been decided to:

• Increase the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) by 25 basis points from 8.0 per cent to 8.25 per cent with immediate effect.

Consequent to the above increase in the repo rate, the reverse repo rate under the LAF will stand automatically adjusted to 7.25 per cent and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate to 9.25 per cent with immediate effect.

Introduction

Since the Reserve Bank’s First Quarter Review of July 26, the global macroeconomic outlook has worsened. There is growing consensus that sluggishness will persist longer than earlier expected. Concerns over the sovereign debt problem in the euro area have added further uncertainty to the prospects of recovery.

Domestically, even as many indicators point to moderating growth, both headline and non-food manufactured products inflation are at uncomfortably high levels. Crude oil prices remain high. Food price inflation persists notwithstanding a normal monsoon.

Inflationary pressures are expected to ease towards the later part of 2011-12. Stabilisation of energy prices and moderating domestic demand should facilitate this process.  However, in the current scenario, with the likelihood of inflation remaining high for the next few months, rising inflationary expectations remain a key risk. This makes it imperative to persevere with the current anti-inflationary stance.

Global Economy

The global economy slowed in Q2 (April-June) of 2011.  Lead indicators such as purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) suggest a further moderation in economic activity in Q3, with the global manufacturing PMI approaching the neutral level of 50. In recent weeks, global financial markets have been rattled by perceptions of  inadequate solutions to the euro area sovereign debt problem, exposure of banks to euro area sovereign debt and renewed fears of recession. Global recovery will also be affected by fiscal consolidation measures in some of the advanced economies.

In the US, apart from fiscal concerns, stubbornly high unemployment and weak housing markets continued to weigh on consumer confidence and private consumption. In response to the weakening of economic activity, the US Federal Open Market Committee, in its 9th August meeting, indicated that it would keep the federal funds rate near zero at least through mid-2013.

Economic activity in the euro area decelerated significantly during Q2 of 2011 reflecting decline in both private and government consumption expenditures as well as deceleration in capital formation. Economic activity contracted in Japan reflecting the impact of the earthquake/tsunami.

In contrast to advanced economies, growth remained relatively resilient in emerging and developing economies, notwithstanding some moderation in response to monetary tightening to contain inflation.